If you’re a bettor on NFL or NCAA college football, you’ve probably considered how to convert points spreads and lines to win probabilities.
For example…
- If an NFL team is a 3-point favorite, how often are they expected to win the game outright?
- If an NCAA college football team is a 10-point underdog, how often are they likely to pull off the upset?
Implied win probabilities feed into other types of betting odds or you may just be curious, so having some handy conversion tables is good to get a feel.
In the tables below, we have NFL and NCAA points spreads to win odd conversions.
Also, at the bottom, we have a moneyline breakeven chart.
If you find this page helpful, feel free to bookmark it for easy future reference.
NFL points spread to win probability odds conversion table
| Point Spread | Favorite Win Chance | Underdog Win Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 1 | 51.3% | 48.8% |
| 1.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 2 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 3 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 3.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 4 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 4.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 5.5 | 69.0% | 31.1% |
| 6 | 70.7% | 29.4% |
| 6.5 | 72.4% | 27.7% |
| 7 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 7.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 8 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 8.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 9 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 9.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| 10 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 10.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| 11 | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 11.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| 12 | 88.5% | 11.6% |
| 12.5 | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 13 | 89.3% | 10.7% |
| 13.5 | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| 14 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| 14.5 | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| 15 | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| 15.5 | 96.3% | 3.7% |
| 16 | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| 17+ | 100% | 0% |
NCAA college football points spread to win probability odds conversion table
| Point Spread | Favorite Win% | Underdog Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 1.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 2 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 2.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 3 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 3.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 4 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 4.5 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 5.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 6 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 6.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 7 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 7.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 8 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 8.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 9 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 9.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 10 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 10.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 11 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 11.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 12 | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| 12.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 13 | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 13.5 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 14 | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 14.5 | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| 15 | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| 15.5 | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 16 | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| 16.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 17 | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| 17.5 | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| 18 | 95.0% | 5.0% |
| 18.5 | 96.3% | 3.7% |
| 19 | 97.4% | 2.6% |
| 19.5 | 98.5% | 1.5% |
| 20 + | 100% | 0.0% |
Moneyline breakeven table
The general formulas are:
Favorites
Line / (Line – 100)
Example
-1200 Favorite
-1200 / (-1200 – 100) = 0.923
= 92.3% Favorite
Underdogs
100 / (Line + 100)
Example
+1200 Underdog
100 / (1200 + 100) = 0.077
= 7.7% Underdog
| Favorites | Underdogs | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Win % (implied probabilities) | Line | Win % (implied probabilities) |
| -1200 | 92.30% | 1200 | 7.70% |
| -1100 | 91.66% | 1100 | 8.34% |
| -1000 | 90.91% | 1000 | 9.09% |
| -900 | 90.00% | 900 | 10.00% |
| -800 | 88.88% | 800 | 11.12% |
| -750 | 88.23% | 750 | 11.77% |
| -700 | 87.50% | 700 | 12.50% |
| -650 | 86.66% | 650 | 13.34% |
| -600 | 85.71% | 600 | 14.29% |
| -575 | 85.18% | 575 | 14.82% |
| -550 | 84.61% | 550 | 15.39% |
| -525 | 84.00% | 525 | 16.00% |
| -500 | 83.33% | 500 | 16.67% |
| -480 | 82.75% | 480 | 17.25% |
| -460 | 82.14% | 460 | 17.86% |
| -450 | 81.81% | 450 | 18.19% |
| -440 | 81.48% | 440 | 18.52% |
| -430 | 81.13% | 430 | 18.87% |
| -420 | 80.76% | 420 | 19.24% |
| -410 | 80.39% | 410 | 19.61% |
| -400 | 80.00% | 400 | 20.00% |
| -395 | 79.79% | 395 | 20.21% |
| -390 | 79.59% | 390 | 20.41% |
| -385 | 79.38% | 385 | 20.62% |
| -380 | 79.16% | 380 | 20.84% |
| -375 | 78.94% | 375 | 21.06% |
| -370 | 78.72% | 370 | 21.28% |
| -365 | 78.49% | 365 | 21.51% |
| -360 | 78.26% | 360 | 21.74% |
| -355 | 78.02% | 355 | 21.98% |
| -350 | 77.77% | 350 | 22.23% |
| -345 | 77.52% | 345 | 22.48% |
| -340 | 77.27% | 340 | 22.73% |
| -335 | 77.01% | 335 | 22.99% |
| -330 | 76.74% | 330 | 23.26% |
| -325 | 76.47% | 325 | 23.53% |
| -320 | 76.19% | 320 | 23.81% |
| -315 | 75.90% | 315 | 24.10% |
| -310 | 75.60% | 310 | 24.40% |
| -305 | 75.30% | 305 | 24.70% |
| -300 | 75% | 300 | 25% |
| -295 | 74.68% | 295 | 25.32% |
| -290 | 74.35% | 290 | 25.65% |
| -285 | 74.02% | 285 | 25.98% |
| -280 | 73.68% | 280 | 26.32% |
| -275 | 73.33% | 275 | 26.67% |
| -270 | 72.97% | 270 | 27.03% |
| -265 | 72.60% | 265 | 27.40% |
| -260 | 72.22% | 260 | 27.78% |
| -255 | 71.83% | 255 | 28.17% |
| -250 | 71.42% | 250 | 28.58% |
| -245 | 71.01% | 245 | 28.99% |
| -240 | 70.58% | 240 | 29.42% |
| -235 | 70.14% | 235 | 29.86% |
| -230 | 69.69% | 230 | 30.31% |
| -225 | 69.23% | 225 | 30.77% |
| -220 | 68.75% | 220 | 31.25% |
| -215 | 68.25% | 215 | 31.75% |
| -210 | 67.74% | 210 | 32.26% |
| -205 | 67.21% | 205 | 32.79% |
| -200 | 66.66% | 200 | 33.34% |
| -195 | 66.10% | 195 | 33.90% |
| -190 | 65.51% | 190 | 34.49% |
| -185 | 64.91% | 185 | 35.09% |
| -180 | 64.28% | 180 | 35.72% |
| -175 | 63.63% | 175 | 36.37% |
| -170 | 62.96% | 170 | 37.04% |
| -165 | 62.26% | 165 | 37.74% |
| -160 | 61.53% | 160 | 38.47% |
| -155 | 60.78% | 155 | 39.22% |
| -150 | 60% | 150 | 40% |
| -145 | 59.18% | 145 | 40.82% |
| -140 | 58.33% | 140 | 41.67% |
| -135 | 57.44% | 135 | 42.56% |
| -130 | 56.52% | 130 | 43.48% |
| -125 | 55.55% | 125 | 44.45% |
| -120 | 54.54% | 120 | 45.46% |
| -115 | 53.48% | 115 | 46.52% |
| -110 | 52.38% | 110 | 47.62% |
| -105 | 51.21% | 105 | 48.79% |
| -100 | 50% | 100 | 50% |
